Louisville’s Defense Hurts Opponents’ Offensive Rankings

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SI.com

By David Burns:

Louisville’s Suffocating Defense – A Stat Review

Previously, we looked at the devastating effects Louisville’s offense has had on opponents’ defensive stats. Today, we are going to look at Louisville’s top 10 defense and how that affects opponents’ offensive stats.

The following charts show Louisville’s previous 9 opponents’ current offensive ranks. It then shows the results of their matchup with Louisville. We then take out the Louisville game to see where these teams would be… had they not had the pleasure of taking on the Cards. We also calculate the difference that 1 game had on each team.

Scoring Offense

Team Rank PPG vs LOU Diff Adj Rank Diff Adj PPG
               
Charlotte 81 26.2 14 -12.2 70 -11 27.8
Syracuse 100 23.7 28 +4.3 106 +6 23.1
Florida St 41 33.6 20 -13.6 33 -13 35.3
Marshall 67 28.3 28 -.3 66 -1 28.4
Clemson 21 38.6 42 +3.4 24 +3 38.1
Duke 92 24.1 14 -10.1 87 -5 25.4
NC State 83 26 13 -13 69 -14 27.6
Virginia 87 25.4 25 -.4 86 -1 25.5
BC 122 19.3 7 -12.4 118 -4 21
               
Averages       -6   -4.4  
  • On average, Louisville’s defense holds opponents to 6 points below what they usually score.
  • Playing Louisville will drop your scoring offense ranking by an average of 4.4 spots.

 

Total Offense

Team Rank YPG vs LOU Diff Adj Rank Diff Adj YPG
               
Charlotte 77 391.6 208 -183.6 55 -22 418.5
Syracuse 38 463.4 414 -49.4 35 -3 469.6
Florida St 34 470.3 284 -186.3 22 -12 493.6
Marshall 113 348.7 207 -141.7 104 -9 366.4
Clemson 24 488.4 507 +18.6 26 +2 486.1
Duke 74 398.9 239 -159.9 54 -20 418.9
NC State 63 408 250 -158 48 -15 427.8
Virginia 105 365.6 322 -43.6 102 -3 371
BC 124 312.1 207 -105.4 123 -1 325.3
               
Averages       -112.1   -9.2  
  • On average, Louisville holds opponents to 112.1 yards below what they typically gain.
  • Playing Louisville will drop your total offense ranking by an average of 9.2 spots!

 

The Next 3 Games

If we take the averages from the first 9 games and apply them to the next 3 games…this is what we get:

Opponent Opponent score Louisville Score Opponent yards Louisville yards
         
Wake Forest 15 40 219 560
Houston 32 44 359 490
Kentucky 21 52 278 616

 

Conclusion

Louisville currently has the #21 scoring offense (21.2 ppg) and the #8 total offense (293.1 ypg). Playing Louisville has some negative effects on your offensive rankings. It is important to note that these numbers could be much higher. Louisville’s starters have only played 3 full games. In the other 6 games, Louisville starters sat the 4th quarter. In a couple of those games, they sat the 3rd quarter.  You don’t want these Cards!

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